Prospects for a Recession in the U.S. Economy and the Problems of Macroeconomic Policy

Patron, Petr

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Prospects for a Recession in the U.S. Economy and the Problems of Macroeconomic Policy

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Экономика и управление народным хозяйством, Финансы, денежное обращение и кредит, Бухгалтерский учет, статистика, Мировая экономика, Теория и философия политики, история и методология, Политические институты, процессы и технологии, Политическая культура и идеологии, Политические проблемы международных отношений, глобального и регионального развития, Политическая регионалистика. Этнополитика, Конфликтология

UDC

33 Экономика. Народное хозяйство. Экономические науки

93/94 История

32 Политика

Publisher

Russian Academy of Sciences

Date of publication

29.05.2019

Public year

2019

DOI

10.31857/S032120680005177-8

Prospects for a Recession in the U.S. Economy and the Problems of Macroeconomic Policy

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Annotation

The article analyzes the current state of the U.S. economy and identifies a number of factors that could trigger the future recession, such as the U.S.-Chinese trade war and a significant correction in the U.S. stock market caused by the inverted yield curve. The following research identifies the reasons for the steady decline in real interest rates in the global economy over the past few decades and highlights the need to adapt US macroeconomic policies to new realities.

USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. 2019 Issue 6

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https://usacanada.jes.su/s032120680005177-8-1/

About authors

Petr Patron

References

1. Ang A., M. Piazzesi, Min Wei, What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, N 131, 2006.

2. Diebold F., Glenn D.Rudebusch, S. Boragan Aruobac The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach, Journal of Econometrics, Volume 131, Issues 1–2, March–April 2006.

3. Gürkaynaka R., Sack B. and Jonathan H. Wright The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 54, Issue 8, November 2007.

4. Handley K., and Nuno Limão. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7 (4), 2015, p. 189-222.

5. Hvozdenska J, The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Gross Domestic Product Growth in Nordic Countries, Procedia Economics and Finance Volume 26, 2015.

6. Kutlina-Dimitrova, Z., Lakatos, C. The Global Costs of Protectionism. Policy Re-search Working Paper No. 8277. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017.

7. Lindé J., Pescatori A. The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs: Revisiting the Lerner Symmetry Result, IMF Working Paper, July 2017.

8. Ling Feng, Zhiyuan Li and Deborah Swenson Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession Journal of International Economics, 2017.

9. Osnago A., Piermartini, R. and Rocha, N., The Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Poli-cy Uncertainty : How Much Do Trade Commitments Boost Trade?. Policy Research Working Paper No. 8567, 2018. World Bank, Washington, DC.

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GOST	Patron P. Prospects for a Recession in the U.S. Economy and the Problems of Macroeconomic Policy // USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. – 2019. – Issue 6 C. 22-36 . URL: https://usacanada.jes.su/s032120680005177-8-1/. DOI: 10.31857/S032120680005177-8
MLA	Patron, Petr "Prospects for a Recession in the U.S. Economy and the Problems of Macroeconomic Policy." USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. 6 (2019).:22-36. DOI: 10.31857/S032120680005177-8
APA	Patron P. (2019). Prospects for a Recession in the U.S. Economy and the Problems of Macroeconomic Policy. USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. no. 6, pp.22-36 DOI: 10.31857/S032120680005177-8

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