The article explores suggestions how to activate key factors of Russia’s economic growth in the long run. In the next 20‒30 years Russia is expected to lose its role as a major supplier of crude oil to European and world markets. It is inevitable to reduce the volume of imports and ensure the import substitution. Moreover, China is pushing Europe out of the Russian market. Opportunities for foreign investment and innovation borrowing are limited. The increase in population is no longer a factor of extensive economic growth. The existing system of predominantly centralized economic management is hardly to provide GDP growth of more than 1-2% per year. A weakening economy is unlikely to withstand a new round of the arms race. Therefore, Russia will have to take measures in advance to overcome unfavorable trends. It is recommended to gradually reduce oil production, which will be inevitable in the long run. At the same time, it is essential to reorient part of the revenues from exporting of raw materials in order to restore domestic production, which will replace the import of machinery, equipment and other products and services as well as ensure growth in non-resource exports. Such a strategy allows to achieve the transition from a raw material-based model of development to a predominantly innovative model and to avoid a new transformation crisis.